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The real cost of a bet in Kenya  ·  October 2026

On one bet, tax takes more than the bookmaker.

Send KES 1,000 from M-Pesa to a betting account, place one bet, cash out. On average the State keeps about KES 96 and the bookmaker between KES 15 and KES 54. Stake the same money again and again, and the bookmaker's share overtakes the tax. We followed the money through the tax law, the odds of five operators and 30 real deposits.

KES 96

of every KES 1,000 goes to tax, on average, when the money is deposited, staked once and withdrawn.

KES 97.50

goes to tax if KES 1,000 is deposited and withdrawn without a single bet being placed, where the operator passes both taxes on.

5

changes to the way a bet is taxed in five years, the latest on 1 July 2026.

2.5×

the excise duty collected on betting three years earlier: KES 16.53 billion in 2025/26.

Compiled and checked by Bertrand V., Editor Sources read 9 to 12 October 2026 Corrections: contact@harakarank.co.ke HarakaRank earns commissions from some operators named in this study.
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Where KES 1,000 goes

Tax is taken twice: 5% when the money enters the betting account and 5% when it leaves. The bookmaker's share sits in the odds, between the two.

One deposit, one Premier League bet, one withdrawal

Average outcome in shillings. Legal rates in force on 9 October 2026, margins measured the same day.

Excise duty at deposit
KES 50
5% of the deposit. KES 950 reaches the account.
Bookmaker's margin
KES 28
KES 15 to 54 depending on the operator.
Withholding tax at withdrawal
KES 46
5% of everything withdrawn, stake included.
Back on M-Pesa
KES 876
KES 851 to 889 depending on the operator.

This is an average, not a forecast: a single bet is either won or lost. It assumes the operator passes both taxes on to the player, as four of the five we tested did. Not counted here: what M-Pesa charges on the deposit (KES 10 for this amount in Safaricom's standard Paybill tariff when the customer pays it) and the KES 29 Safaricom charges to withdraw the cash at an agent.

One bet only. Stake the whole balance again and the bookmaker's margin is taken again, while most of the tax is not. On average the bookmaker's share passes the tax at the second bet with the highest-margin operator we measured, at the fourth with the two in the middle and at the seventh with the two lowest.

Kenya betting tax calculator

Enter what you send, what you stake and what the bet pays. The calculator shows what the two taxes take and what lands back on M-Pesa.

Stake multiplied by the odds. Enter 0 for a lost bet.

Read it on the M-Pesa confirmation SMS. On our test deposits of KES 200 to 250 it showed KES 0 or KES 24.

Back on M-Pesa
KES 427.50

KES 572.50 less than the KES 1,000 that left M-Pesa.

Excise duty, 5% of the depositKES 50
Credited to the betting accountKES 950
Balance after the betKES 450
Withholding tax, 5% of the withdrawalKES 22.50
Total taxKES 72.50

Sports betting, rates in force on 9 October 2026 (Finance Act 2026). Assumes the whole balance is withdrawn and that the operator passes both taxes on. The 5% withdrawal rate is the Finance Act 2025 rate and what four of five operators deducted in our tests; no 2026 source we read restates it. Jackpots, lotteries and prize competitions may be taxed differently. For information only, not tax advice. 18+.

Five tax changes in five years

Until June 2025 Kenya taxed the stake and the win. Since then it taxes the money going in and the money coming out, whether the bettor wins or not.

  1. 1 July 2021 7.5% of every stake. Excise duty applies to each bet under the Finance Act 2021. Winnings, net of the stake, also carry a 20% withholding tax.
  2. 1 July 2023 12.5% of every stake. The Finance Act 2023 raises the excise rate.
  3. 27 December 2024 15% of every stake. The Tax Laws (Amendment) Act 2024 raises it again.
  4. 1 July 2025 5% in, 5% out. The Finance Act 2025 replaces both taxes: 5% excise on money deposited into a betting account, and a 5% withholding tax on every withdrawal. The 20% tax on winnings goes.
  5. 1 July 2026 Deposits taxed, winnings tax returns. Under the Finance Act 2026 the 5% excise is charged on amounts deposited for betting, and horse racing is no longer excluded. A 20% withholding tax returns on "winnings", defined as pay-outs from lotteries and prize competitions; the definition does not say whether sports bets are covered. The withholding tax point moves from the withdrawal to the moment money is paid into the player's account (EY). We found no 2026 source that states the rate on withdrawals.

Throughout the period operators also pay a 15% betting tax on their gross gaming revenue.

What changed in July 2026
  • Excise: 5% on deposits, confirmed. The Finance Act 2026, in force from 1 July 2026, charges the 5% on amounts deposited for betting and gambling purposes and removes the horse-racing exclusion (EY Global Tax News, 8 July 2026; Kenyans.co.ke, 2 July 2026).
  • Withholding tax point moved. It now falls when money is paid or disbursed to the player's account, not when the player withdraws it (EY).
  • 20% on "winnings" is back. The Act defines winnings as a pay-out from a lottery or prize competition. That definition does not say it covers sports bets, so we do not claim it does.
  • Rate on withdrawals: not confirmed. We found no statement of it in the 2026 sources read. The calculator keeps 5% and says so.
Sources disagree

Several published summaries of the Finance Act 2026 say betting winnings are taxed at 20% again. The Act defines winnings as a pay-out from a lottery or prize competition, and none of the five operators we tested deducted 20%: four deducted about 5% on withdrawals and one deducted nothing. We keep 5% and 5% for a sports bet and show the other reading here.

A second point is open. EY reads the Act's new definition of a withdrawal as moving the tax to the moment a pay-out is credited to the player's account. The four operators that deducted tax in our tests did so only when money left the betting account.

What the State collects

Excise duty on betting brought in KES 16.53 billion in the year to June 2026, against KES 6.64 billion three years earlier. Collections rose 24.9% in the first year of the 5%-on-deposits regime. The old and new tax bases are not comparable.

Excise duty collected on betting, KES billion

Fiscal years, July to June. Kenya Revenue Authority.

2022/236.64
2023/2410.60
2024/2513.23
2025/2616.53

2022/23 and 2024/25 are taken from KRA's own press releases. 2023/24 and 2025/26 are KRA figures as reported by Kenyan media; we could not read them on KRA's site.

Three taxes, one sector

In 2022/23, the last year for which we found all three in a KRA release: KES 6.64 billion of excise duty, KES 8.60 billion of withholding tax on winnings and KES 3.87 billion of betting tax paid by operators.

Two totals for the same year

For 2023/24 KRA put the sector's tax bill at KES 24.27 billion. The regulator, then the Betting Control and Licensing Board, put it at KES 22.3 billion. Neither explains the gap.

What the excise implies

At 5% of deposits, KES 16.53 billion implies about KES 330 billion paid into betting accounts in a year, roughly KES 900 million a day. Business Daily reported the same Sh330.5 billion as bets placed; the 5% is charged on deposits, so it measures money paid in.

The bookmaker's margin: 1.6% to 6% on a match result

The margin is how far the odds overstate the chances: add up 1/odds for the home win, the draw and the away win, and what exceeds 1 is the margin. We read those odds for the same ten Premier League matches at five operators, all on the regulator's 2025/26 list of licensed companies, within four minutes of each other.

Average margin on a match-result bet

Ten Premier League fixtures of 10 to 12 October 2026, odds read on 9 October 2026 between 08:18 and 08:22 Nairobi time. Scale 0 to 7%.

1xBet1.56%
Melbet1.56%
Odibets3.05%
Betika3.14%
SportPesa6.03%

1xBet and Melbet showed identical odds on all ten matches. One market, one league, one reading: other leagues and other bet types were not measured, and odds move. The share of stakes a bookmaker expects to keep is slightly lower than its margin, 1.5% to 5.7% here, before the 15% betting tax it pays on that revenue.

Disclosure. HarakaRank earns commissions from some operators named here. No operator took part in or reviewed this study.

What one tester saw

The law says what should happen. To see what does, a tester in Kenya, paid a fixed fee by HarakaRank whatever the result, made 30 real deposits of KES 200 to 250 at five operators, six at each, between 29 September and 4 October 2026, then withdrew.

One person, small amounts. Read this as a case, not a sample. For that reason the operators are not named in this section.
4 of 5

operators deducted 5% from every deposit before crediting it, and about 5% from every withdrawal. The fifth credited deposits and paid withdrawals in full.

At withdrawal

The tax was taken when the money left the betting account, on the whole amount withdrawn. It was not taken when a win was credited.

KES 24

was the transaction cost shown on the M-Pesa confirmation SMS for 22 of the 30 deposits, and KES 0 for the other eight. It varied between deposits at the same operator. Safaricom's published Paybill tariff shows KES 5 for these amounts when the customer pays, and we found no published explanation.

27 of 27

withdrawals arrived. Three operators paid within the same minute each time; the other two took 2 to 18 minutes. Receiving the money cost nothing. Five or six withdrawals per operator are too few to rank anyone.

KES 43.75

lost on a round trip with no bet, at the one operator that allowed it: KES 19.75 of tax and the KES 24 transaction cost shown on the SMS. KES 200 sent, KES 190 credited, KES 180.25 received.

Who bets: what a mobile survey says

In GeoPoll's 2026 mobile survey of six African markets, Kenya has the highest share of respondents who bet on football in the past year, and the lowest share of bettors spending USD 50 or more a month.

GeoPoll, Betting in Africa 2026 Kenya Ghana Nigeria
Respondents who bet on football in the past 12 months64%60%54%
Bettors who bet on a mobile device96%96%96%
Bettors who spend USD 50 or more a month7%10%9%

Mobile survey of 2,866 people, 557 in Kenya, 24 June to 16 July 2026, run by SMS, WhatsApp and app and not adjusted to national population estimates. The same 64%, 60% and 54% appear in GeoPoll's World Cup report of 10 June 2026, which had a different sample, so it is unclear which survey they come from.

18+

Betting is for adults aged 18 and over. Gambling is addictive: play responsibly. Kenyan law lets a person sign a self-exclusion agreement with a licensed operator that covers all gambling; the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Kenya keeps the register. Help, complaints and self-exclusion.

Use this data

Journalists, researchers and bloggers are free to republish these charts and figures and to embed the calculator.

Keep the source line under the chart: it is the credit the licence asks for.

Data and press Download the data (CSV)

Press enquiries and custom cuts of the data: contact@harakarank.co.ke

Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may copy, adapt and republish this work, including commercially, provided you credit "The real cost of a bet in Kenya, HarakaRank" with a link to https://harakarank.co.ke/research/real-cost-of-a-bet-kenya/.

This page is updated when the tax rules change. Last checked 12 October 2026.

How we built this

Tax rates come from the Acts, Kenya Revenue Authority notices and the Parliamentary Budget Office. One rate, the 7.5% of 2021, comes from a tax firm's analysis. Where two sources disagree we print both. The KES 1,000 example combines the legal rates with margins we measured ourselves. Where a figure was missing we left it out, and our own calculations are labelled as such.

Limits

  • The headline holds for one bet, on average. Stake the money again and the bookmaker's share overtakes the tax.
  • The calculator covers sports betting at the rates in force on 9 October 2026. Lottery and prize-competition winnings carry a separate 20% withholding tax and are not modelled.
  • The KES 1,000 example assumes the operator passes both taxes on to the player. One of the five we tested did not.
  • Margins come from one reading of one market, the match result, on ten Premier League fixtures. Two of the five operators showed identical odds; counting them once raises the average margin from KES 28 to about KES 32.
  • The real-money tests are one tester's experience: 30 deposits, 27 withdrawals, small amounts, times read to the minute.
  • The rate of the withholding tax on withdrawals after 1 July 2026 is not stated in the Finance Act 2026 summaries we read (EY, Mondaq, KRA FAQ); the 5% used here is the 2025 rate, seen in practice at four of five operators.
  • Excise figures for 2023/24 and 2025/26 are KRA numbers reported by the press. We found no full-year withholding tax figure after 2022/23.
  • GeoPoll's survey is a quick mobile poll, not adjusted to the national population.
  • This page explains how the taxes work. It is not tax advice.

Sources